Memphis, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

474
FXUS64 KMEG 061712
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1212 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Low relative humidity and above-normal temperatures will
  contribute to elevated fire danger across the Mid-South through
  Friday.

- High temperatures will gradually warm through late week, with
  high temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and lower 90s by
  Thursday and Friday.

- Moisture from a possible tropical system in the Gulf will bring
  increasing rain chances to the Mid-South this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Quiescent conditions will persist across the Mid-South in the
near term. The synoptic pattern across the CONUS is highlighted
by a muted ridge over the Desert Southwest and troughing along
the East Coast. The resultant northwest flow aloft has allowed a
dry air mass to set up camp over the Mid-South through the end of
the work week. This will support larger-than-normal diurnal
temperature ranges. Low temperatures will start near normal (mid
50s to around 60 F) midweek, gradually climbing into the low/mid
60s by the weekend. High temperatures will be above normal
throughout this time frame, spanning the 80s today and gradually
climbing into the mid 80s to lower 90s Thursday and Friday. Dry
fuels and low relative humidity will result in elevated fire
danger, but wind speeds will generally remain light, limiting the
overall impact.

The primary forecast concern today is the evolution and track of
the tropical disturbance over the Bay of Campeche. This system is
expected to intensify over the next few days, eventually lifting
north toward the Gulf Coast this weekend. The track of this
system will be heavily influenced by the subtropical ridge over
Bermuda and the evolution of the weak upper-level low currently
over the Great Basin. The western upper low is forecast to drift
southeast over TX by Friday, opening the door for the tropical
system to lift poleward. There are still some fairly significant
timing differences between the ensemble systems, but the general
trend in the guidance suggests this feature will approach the
central Gulf Coast over the weekend. It`s worth noting that a few
LREF members even hold this system back into early next week, so
confidence is pretty low at the moment. That said, a slower
poleward acceleration would likely shunt this system farther east
of the aforementioned trough swings through the Lower MS Valley
Sunday.

The main impacts associated with this tropical system will likely
be confined to the heavy rainfall potential. Moisture is forecast
to surge into the region Saturday, with precipitable water
exceeding 1.50". This is just above the 90th percentile of
climatology for early October. Large-scale lift associated with
the trough to our west, combined with the anomalous moisture,
will support high PoPs and the potential for locally heavy
rainfall, mainly east of the Mississippi River. Current NBM
probabilities for 2+ inches of rain exceed 50% across portions of
northeast MS this weekend, with 3" probabilities near 30%.
Rainfall totals are likely to diminish farther west, with areas
along and west of the Mississippi River only sitting at 30-40%
chance of 1" or more. We`ll have more information as this system
develops.

We do anticipate a cold front arriving by early next week,
bringing drier and cooler air to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

There is medium confidence in the development of patchy fog and
subsequent MVFR visibilities at MKL and TUP towards sunrise
Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds are expected
to prevail at all sites through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Dry air will prevail across the Mid-South through the work week,
resulting in minimum relative humidity values of 25-35 percent
each afternoon. Twenty-foot wind speeds will remain light through
Friday under rain-free conditions. Moisture associated with the
tropical system in the Gulf will bring increasing rain chances to
the region over the weekend. Patchy fog is expected late tonight,
mainly along and east of the Mississippi River.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...MJ
AVIATION...CJC